A surface cyclone is intensifying along the Gulf Coast (see surface plot top for 13 UTC from CoD weather page), currently centered near New Orleans. I don't seem to recall many Gulf of Mexico cyclogenesis events in recent winters, but this seems to be a classic situation. The low will intensify and race up the East coast, posing a variety of forecasting challenges.
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Situations like this pose a severe weather threat, especially if unstable, mT air is pulled onshore ahead of the cyclone as it moves east-northeastward. Florida is clearly at threat later today, but satellite imagery at 1345 UTC (middle vis and bottom IR) indicates fairly strong thunderstorms offshore - so the first forecast issue with this cyclone is whether or not the air feeding these storms will stay mostly over Florida or be pulled further inland this afternoon.
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Last night's model runs indicate a significant winter storm for the Tennessee Valley, as colder air is pulled southward into the system. The models also indicate a rain/snow line that lies close to the major metropolitan areas, especially in the middle Atlantic Region. This will lead to a sloppy storm with the forecast challenge being how much rain vs how much ice and snow.
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So, a couple of interesting days on tap, but at other side of country.
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