This morning's Tucson sounding has an unfavorable wind profile that does not favor storms moving into low elevation deserts. Steering-level winds are easterly at 10 to 15 kts, while anvil level winds are northeasterly at 30 to 40 kts. When storms develop on mountains, anvils will stream off ahead them - not good. Further, low levels have dried some, and with substantial cooling from yesterday's storms. Expect that afternoon sounding at low elevations will have substantial CIN present. Thus, expect storms to hold to higher elevations and skirt Tucson metro area. Indeed, the WRF-NAM forecast for 5 pm this afternoon indicates that storms on Rincons and Catalinas move off away from Tucson.
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