The GFS operational member is picking up the disturbance currently south of Mexico - see previous post. The 195-hour forecast of 850 mb wind, heights, and PW is shown above. The GFS forecasts a TS to be near the south end of Baja, with a nice surge of mT moisture heading up GoC ahead of it. Of course 8 days is a long way out, and we'll watch how things develop over next few days.
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