Cloud-free skies over Arizona this morning, as per visible satellite image above. Has been quite cool here at house last three mornings: 38F on Tuesday; 37F on Wednesday; and 36F this morning. Afternoons have been about perfect.
Models continue to move a system across southern Arizona next Monday (the 21st). Some forecasts have a cutoff at 500 mb, but some now have an short-wave trough coming by. The morning GFS operational model forecast at 500 mb valid 12 UTC next Monday morning is shown above The GFS operational forecast of 24-hour precipitation valid at 12 UTC next Tuesday morning is shown below. The GFS is now forecasting a less significant event across southern Arizona than it had been. The forecast below would indicate light showers for higher elevations in southeastern Arizona. Only 4 of the 12 GFS ensemble members from this morning's forecast runs indicate precipitation over southeast Arizona - so yesterday's deja vu is much diminished today.
Finally, a fairly significant severe thunderstorm outbreak, for November, occurred late yesterday across the Southeast - see the SPC severe reports plot below. There were a number of fatalities and stories on the national news this morning.
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