Two posts ago I compared the 168-hour GFS and ECMWF forecasts. The 7-day GFS 500 mb forecast valid at 5 pm MST today is shown above. The ECMWF forecast for the same time indicated zonal flow and much higher heights. Below is the current NAM forecast valid at 5 pm this afternoon. The GFS clearly had a far superior 168-hour forecast regarding the shape of the short wave. However, the GFS was much too intense. The ECMWF came around with time - see prior post. So, a very mixed bag in the global model forecasts during the past week. What does it all mean for southeastern Arizona - looks like more wind and dust, which is the typical situation this time of year.
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