Image above is satellite water vapor at 1430 UTC this morning. The upper-level short wave is just north of the Salton Sea. It is forecast rapidly eastward across northern Arizona during the day today. The system will bring a pronounced cold front and gusty winds across southeastern Arizona. The water vapor loop indicates dry, upper-level, Pacific air being pulled around the bottom of the short wave, meaning that any convection that develops around midday will likely be relatively shallow.
The early run of the WRF-GFS at Atmo again indicates little precipitation with this event, as was the case with yesterday's model forecasts. The 700 mb forecast of RH (above) indicates a band of frontal moisture crossing eastern Pima County by around 10 am. There may be virga and light showers with this band (note that there was a very slight spit of rain around 5 am here at the house). The WRF-GFS forecasts very light rainfall amounts (below) through midnight, confined to higher elevations. So, a promising event that has weakened as it got closer in time. So it goes.
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