The 12 UTC run of the Atmo WRF-GFS model this morning forecasts thunderstorm activity to extend into eastern Pima County this afternoon. The 3 pm forecast sounding for Tucson has developed CAPE - apparently due to low-level moisture convergence and hot temperatures. The new forecast of total rainfall through midnight (below) shows that the morning model run has shifted the maximum activity into Santa Cruz and eastern Pima County.
By 8 pm the 10-m wind forecast indicates several outflow boundaries sloshing around southeastern Arizona and northern Mexico. The current composite radar (below for 12:30 pm MST) indicates that thundershowers have already developed in eastern Pima County. So the new forecast run seems to have a better track on things.
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