Atmosphere continues very moist and this morning's Tucson sounding (above) continues to indicate a fair amount of CAPE. The winds aloft are mostly light and somewhat chopped up this morning. The models forecast the 500 mb anticyclone to be centered right over Arizona by evening. The early WRF-GFS forecast of the Tucson sounding (below, valid at 2 pm MST) indicates some instability, but winds aloft are very weak. Thus, it appears to be a day when storms won't move much and will tend to favor higher elevations.
The WRF-GFS forecast of accumulated rainfall through midnight tonight (above) indicates considerably reduced areal coverage today, with heaviest amounts on the Catalinas (again) and on the mountains near Nogales. The model also forecasts very heavy storms up north in the Rim Country - i.e., in Flagstaff's CWA.
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