Miriam has provided a nice example of how far off the global models, and NHC, can be at times. The IR image above is from 7 am MST. Miriam can hardly be seen, since she has become a shallow remnant low without deep convection. A large plume of cirrus from Miriam extends northeastward into southeastern Arizona, and there appear to be active storms over western Mexico south of 30 degrees N. The thin cirrus produced a halo around the nearly full moon early last night. The surface dewpoints at Yuma have jumped again into the low 70s, but the moisture is shallow. A last gasp from Miriam could be isolated showers along the Borderlands during the afternoons today and tomorrow. The IR image above also indicates another tropical disturbance south-southwest of Cabo Corrientes - this may become a new TD or TS later today or tomorrow.
The above is the latest NHC forecast of Miriam made at 8 am this morning (27 September). Below is the NHC forecast from 8 am on 24 September. What a difference!
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