Yesterday's model forecasts kept Paul far vigorous than actually happened. The remnants of Paul are along the Baja coast and most of the associated clouds are being pulled into the closed low that is off to the west. Above is 10 am MST visible image for eastern Pacific, and below is 10:15 am image for the Southwest, which is pristinely clear. The WRF-GFS forecast for heavy cirrus cloud from Paul covering the south half of Arizona today certainly didn't verify. There's really no extensive cirrus cloud with Paul, since deep convection crashed yesterday evening. So it goes.
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