Hurricane Paul (Cat. 1) is now moving north. A substantial trough extends northeast of Paul and cloudiness extends north to southeastern Arizona and northeastward over Texas. A substantial area of strong convection was occurring at 12 UTC at the south end of Baja (see IR image above). Paul is forecast by NHC to move northward (see graphic below) to near the Baja spur before weakening dramatically. Paul's track and the extensive activity to its northeast will trigger a push of low-level moisture northward up the GoC today and tomorrow. This push of higher dewpoints will make it into southwest Arizona by Wednesday morning and it may even begin showing up tomorrow. The impact of this surge is uncertain, since it will likely be shallow. It is something to watch the next couple of days.
The NAM forecast (below, for 700 mb valid at 12 UTC Wednesday morning) indicates a persistent ridge over Arizona. The flow around this ridge keeps deeper moisture with Paul to the south of the border. Once again, the synoptic pattern is fighting the tropical system, trying to keep significant moisture south.
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