The 500 mb forecast from the ECMWF run at 00 UTC last evening is shown above - this panel is valid at 5 pm MST this afternoon. The models continue to forecast a glancing blow for Arizona, as the system digs into northwestern Sonora. The Atmo versions of the WRF model continue to keep precipitation mostly on the light side and south of the border. The forecast below shows total accumulated precipitation through 5 pm MST tomorrow (Tuesday, January 8th - forecast is on the larger domain 5.4 km grid).
On the 1.8 km, fine-mesh grid (above) the model forecasts very light precipitation amounts through 5 pm tomorrow, except for a few spots in Cochise County right along the border. Most activity forecast to be in northern Mexico, as with the last system - see photo in earlier post of snow in Mexico.
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