The 12 UTC 500 mb chart from NCAR RAL (above) indicates that the moisture plume from the south is inching toward the Southwest this morning. The chart also shows that the 500 mb anticyclone has moved eastward and is now centered between Tucson and Albuquerque (ignore the poor height contours over the Southwest).. The system of interest for the rest of the week is west of Baja. The water vapor image below indicates that the upper-level cyclone is west of southern Baja. Upper-level cloudiness is spreading slowly across Arizona this morning, so the perfect Chamber of Commerce weather of the last few days is giving way to periods of Pacific cloudiness and then eventually to showers.
This morning's early run of the WRF-GFS forecasts widespread, but light precipitation, by midnight Friday night. Forecast above is of accumulated precipitation through midnight 25 January 2013. Tomorrow's WRF forecasts will cover the entire precipitation event and may reflect better the role of the low-latitude moisture plume.
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