This morning the digging, short wave at 500 mb is over California and the western Great Basin, with strong vorticity maxima over the Sierra Nevada. The new NAM forecast this morning indicates that by midnight tonight the 500 mb wave will have closed off over southern Utah, with the vorticity streamer looping across southern Arizona (above). The early run of Atmo's WRF-GFS really tells the story for this event over southern Arizona. Below is the forecast of precipitable water for 8 pm this evening and this is as good as the model forecasts - 15 mm PW over Tucson.
The wrf-gfs forecast of composite radar for 9 pm this evening is shown above, indicating a line of showers across eastern Pima County. The forecast for total precipitation through 5 am tomorrow morning (below) indicates little in the way of measurable rainfall for all of southeastern Arizona. So mostly a serious duster that will make things even more miserable for allergy sufferers.
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