Yesterday's early WRF-GFS forecast a down day and that is essentially what most all of southeastern Arizona experienced. The PW decreased (above is two day time-series of GPS derived PW at Univ. of Arizona ending at about 5 am this morning) as the model forecast, stabilizing things while the east winds continued. Some deep convection developed around dusk - below is TUS radar composite at about 7 pm MST. So, slightly more convection than the model indicated. The evening convection produced some locally strong outflows - about 30 mph from south here at the house. I went out just a bit after dark but could see no lightning flashes in any direction.
The plot of 24-hour lightning strikes (below) ending at about 5 am MST emphasizes what a suppressed day it was. Not a single strike detected in Cochise, Santa Cruz and Pima Counties and only some strikes out in far western Pima County. As for rainfall - no rain was observed across the ALERT network yesterday afternoon through 6 pm last evening. There were 10 sites (~ 10 %) with light rainfall after 6 pm. Nothing, of course, here at the house.
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