The visible satellite image (above for 6:45 pm MST on the 6th) shows heavy cirrus anvil over eastern Pima County with active storms surrounding Tucson in all directions (radar at 7 pm below).
A 24-hour plot of lightning CG strike locations (below ending at 5 am CST this morning) also shows a big hole over northwestern Cochise County and Eastern Pima County.
The early WRF-GFS was not a good forecast again yesterday - it had predicted almost no activity over all of southern Arizona. Once again the 12 UTC WRF-NAM provided a good forecast (see below). Thunderstorms were mostly anchored to high terrain, but the small MCS forecast into Pinal County did occur and I see that Casa Grande had thunder and blowing dust between 9 and 10 pm last evening. The ALERT network data this morning indicate that only 6 of 92 (~7% coverage) stations had rainfall. There were two measurements of 0.20" along the far western edge of the network and the 4 other rain amounts were 0.04".
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