Models Shift Activity To East

I was away much of the morning but want to continue a bit with my model assessment message from post below. I show here total accumulated precipitation through 5 am MST on the Fourth forecast by the 12 UTC forecast runs of: WRF-GFS (above); WRF-NAM (below); and NAM (bottom). All three models shift the axis of heavy rainfall off to the east into Cochise County, with very little rain forecast in Pima County (except over the Rincons). This is quite a change relative to the past two days and we'll watch to see how the models do.