Tucson had an excellent sounding last evening for heavy storms, BUT significant outflow forcing was needed but not to be found. Today's skewT (12 UTC, 7 July 13 above) is quite similar. Light and variable winds below 500 mb and poor shear profile above. Good sounding for anvil debris across the metro area. A complicating factor today is the large area of debris cloud and light showers moving northward across much of southeastern Arizona (below is visible image from 6:45 am MST). Clouds appear to be thick enough to hinder heating and storm development, and much will depend upon how quickly it dissipates. Will not look at models until the 12 UTC runs are done.
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