The early WRF-GFS forecast actually did pretty well with the morning convection, although the showers did not produce as strong an outflow as the model predicted. The new WRF-GFS run with 12 UTC intialization appears more accurate than the WRF-NAM, which has much more convection forecast than is occurring. So, perhaps a blend of the two versions of WRF-GFS will work out best for today. The above graphic is forecast of composite radar from the am WRF-GFS valid at 7 pm this evening. Below is am WRF-GFS forecast of rainfall through midnight. The later forecast is more conservative along the Borderlands, since it didn't pick up the morning convection as well as the midnight run. Tough day and we'll just watch to see what transpires this afternoon and evening.
TROPICAL UPDATE
Looks like TS Flossie may be forming well southwest of Baja - near 15N and 120W (see IR image below). Meanwhile TS Dorian has formed over the eastern Atlantic.
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