Not much time this morning. Note that Gil is now a Cat. 1 hurricane. Some precipitation returned to high elevations of eastern Pima County yesterday. Eight sites (9 %) in the ALERT network had rainfall through 6 pm yesterday afternoon - none after that. Rain was in the Catalinas and Rincons and all amounts were less than a tenth of an inch, except at Manning Camp which reported 0.43". Most lightning through evening yesterday (above) occurred in Cochise County. The Tucson sounding this morning (12 UTC skew-T below) is more moist than yesterday with 42 mm of PW. However low-level CAPE remains slight. Winds aloft below 300 mb are light and variable. So August starts out like much of July.
There is considerable cloudiness over the Southwest this morning and convection was still active at 14 UTC over the southern 2/3rds of the GoC. The convection, in conjunction with an upper-level low off southern Baja, will push low-level moisture back into southwestern Arizona today or tonight. Although situation is somewhat stagnant, the latest NAM forecasts a wet afternoon and evening for all of eastern Arizona (precipitation forecast through midnight tonight shown below). Crude NAM resolution results in some heavy mountain rains being smeared into lower elevations. Couldn't find any 06 UTC WRF forecasts this morning.
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