The NHC has started issuing forecasts for TD 9, which is currently south-southwest of the south end of Baja. Above is IR image from 6:30 am MST this morning and below is first NHC forecast for the TD. It is forecast to become a tropical storm, but NHC does not anticipate that it will reach hurricane strength. If it becomes a tropical storm its name will be "Ivo."
All the models forecast a significant push of mT low-level air back into the Southwest, which will make for an interesting weekend. Below is the early WRF-GFS forecast of PW (on the 5.4 km grid) valid at 8 pm MST on Saturday the 24th. This forecast indicates highest PW to advect northward up the lower Colorado River Basin. I have shown the WRF-GFS, since it forecasts the tropical storm track closer to NHC than does the NAM, which has the storm closer to Baja and stronger.
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