Two short waves at 500 mb will be affecting Arizona for the next several days. The first will come by tomorrow afternoon. The early run of the WRF-NAM this morning forecasts some light radar echoes tomorrow afternoon - above is valid at 2 pm on Friday the 15th. However, actual precipitation is forecast to be quite sparse, since the WRF keeps better values of PW to the south in Mexico. Forecast below shows total precipitation through 6 am MST on Saturday morning. The timing of the short wave will be important, since better PW will be close to the south. The one system that brought us some precipitation this month came through with higher PW than the model had forecast - so something to keep an eye on tomorrow. The first short wave pushes the higher PW well south and east so that the system on Sunday may also be moisture-starved.
The model does forecast gusty southwest to west winds over most of the Southwest next two afternoons. Forecasts show 10 m winds valid at 4 pm (above on Friday and below on Saturday). So, some of the dust that came in last two days on the strong east winds will be blown back toward New Mexico.
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