Thunderstorms And Outflows Approaching Border This Afternoon

Thunderstorms this afternoon in eastern Pima County have tended to remain on the mountains and some have back-built toward the south. Radar composite chart above is from 4:09 pm MST. Plot of detected CG flashes below (from Vaisala and ATM) is for 24-hours ending at 3:30 pm - note the hole over metro Tucson and also widespread flashes south of the border in northern Mexico. At bottom is water vapor image from 4:00 pm . The northward moving MCS that Mike mentioned in his WRF discussion earlier has now weakened, as at least one new MCS develops to its northeast. Mesoscale outflows from the thunderstorms over northern Mexico will be moving northward, with much cooler air, across southeastern Arizona this evening, with the main question being that of whether they'll bring rain to low elevations. The 00 UTC sounding from TWC should be interesting.