The composite radar above is from Yuma at 5:25 am MST this morning, indicating showers moving into southwest Arizona at this time. There have also been early morning showers in eastern Maricopa County and along the Rim Country north of Phoenix. A few CG flashes have been detected up there, indicating embedded thunderstorms.
The 06 UTC forecasts from the WRF models run at Atmo are indicating showers into eastern Pima County later this morning and afternoon. The forecast of composite radar echoes below is from the WRF-GFS and is valid at 2:00 pm this afternoon.
Neither model forecasts much in the way of precipitation amounts at low elevations for eastern Pima County through 5:00 am tomorrow, but the WRF models have been under-forecasting amounts during the Fall and early Winter and this may still be the case. Regardless, looks like one of those rare, "you'd better carry an umbrella" days.
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