Longer Term Forecasts And Outlooks

Will start with a look at outlooks from the NWS CPC, and then follow with a comparison of the 192-hour forecasts from the operational versions of the ECMWF and the NWS GFS.

Graphic above shows the CPC precipitation outlook for the month of March - as per their products beginning last Fall, the forecast has been for a typical El Nino pattern. This has seemed to be plow-ahead type forecasts, despite what has been observed. Graphic below shows latest CPC 8-14 day precipitation forecast - about as different from the monthly outlook as one could imagine. These shorter term outlooks are very much driven (apparently) by what the current global long-term model forecasts are indicating. Second below is the operational GFS forecast of total precipitation through the next 10-days - very grim for our part of the world.

Even with the strong El Nino signal, the CPC outlooks have demonstrated that coin-flipping is about as accurate as their products.

Of interest is a very substantial difference between the operational 500 mb forecasts this morning from the ECMWF - above - and the GFS - below. The ECMWF holds out some hope for a precipitation event for southeastern Arizona, while the GFS continues with a dry pattern. Second below is the GEFS plumes forecast for QPF - which is seriously flatlined through 192-hours. Will be interesting to watch how this difference between ECMWF and GFS plays out.