There were heavy clouds over much of the metro area this morning, with virga and perhaps some sprinkles off toward the Rincons. View of the Catalinas above was at 6:00 am MST, while the visible satellite image below was from 7:00 am. Heavy clouds kept temperatures very warm during the night - low temperature at TUS this morning was only 73 F versus 60 F yesterday morning.
It looks like temperatures at middle-levels are about as cool as they'll get (-14 C at 500 mb) and that warm advection will be setting in above 700 mb during the day. The 06 UTC forecasts from the WRF-NAM at Atmo seem to reflect this, with afternoon convection shifted to our east and northeast. The composite radar forecast below is valid at 5:00 pm MST this afternoon. The WRF-NAM has been a bit conservative this Spring and there may be a very slight chance for showers around our nearby Sky Islands.
After today it looks like serious summer for a few days.
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