The July 1st forecast from the ECMWF valid out at 210 hours (11 pm tonight) was posted here earlier (above). Jack Diebolt sent along along the image below for comparison. Times aren't exactly comparable, but basically the model forecast was quite good, considering the long-range and fact that the features of interest are tropical storms. Blas and Celia are both now tropical storms, with Celia expected to become a hurricane tonight. The ECMWF continues to forecast a very active eastern Pacific through the next 10 days, but unfortunately the ridge across northern Mexico keeps all the tropical storm activity blocked far to the south and west, away from the Southwest.
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