Forecast models this morning have shifted the forecast closed low at 500 mb northward over southern Utah, and then move it slowly northward. This leaves most of Arizona in dry southwesterly flow. This morning's 12 UTC forecasts of total precipitation through midnight on October 1st are shown here. Above is on the 1.8 km grid and below is on the 5.4 km grid - Arizona is left high and dry, except along the New Mexico and Utah borders - not a promising forecast for remainder of month.
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