Thunderstorms developed across much of southeastern and southern Arizona yesterday afternoon - radar above from KEMX TUS radar at 5:39 pm MST. The flash density plot below (from weather.graphics and Vaisala) shows activity that developed west of Tucson and also in Pima County out around Ajo. Had a very brief shower here with large drops that just wet patio - however, only a Trace in gauge this morning.
View to north from campus at sunrise (above) captures a chaotic morning sky.
The 12 UTC 500 mb analysis (above from SPC) shows the closed low out to our wes, just about as forecast. A small, -20 C cold pool will be moving across the Borderlands today, bringing another chance of thunderstorms The morning sounding for TWC (below also from SPC) indicates a bit of CAPE above 600 mb, but low PW and dry lower-levels - thus chance of some gusty outflows.
Forecasts shown here from 06 UTC WRF-GFS. Composite radar above at 5:00 pm today and total forecast precipitation through 5:00 am tomorrow below. Again of note is fact that same run forecasts strong outflows of 40+ mph across much of Pima County this afternoon. The new 12 UTC forecasts appear to be trending toward a bit more thunderstorm activity for eastern Pima County than did the midnight runs.
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