Last night there was an MCS over eastern Sonora - above is IR image of system from 0630 UTC and below shows detected CG flashes for 12-hours through 05 UTC (from Atmo and Vaisala). Outflow from the MCS did push north into parts of southern Arizona, particularly over southeastern Cochise County, which is a good trend.
Systems like this forecast by models to occur next several nights, which gradually pushes significant low-level moisture over southeastern Arizona. Forecast of PW above (from 06 UTC WRF-GFS on 5.4 km grid)) is valid at 8:00 am MST on 6 July. If all this occurs, then perhaps an uptick in thunderstorm activity can be expected over the weekend.
Below is image of Hurricane Barbara at 21:30 UTC yesterday afternoon - a very classic intense hurricane. This morning NHC continues to call the storm Category 4, but during the night they were estimating her winds at 1 kt below Category 5 - thus essentially a Cat 5 storm.
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