NOTE - missed a week due to bad fall last Sunday and being stuck in hospital until yesterday.
View above from 6:00 pm MST yesterday with thunderstorms northeast and northwest of the Catalinas.
Plot of detected CG flashes (from Atmo and Vaisala) for 24-hours ending at 1:30 am this morning - much of eastern Pima County again storm-free yesterday afternoon.
Visible image from 7:00 am this morning above shows large area of convective debris to our southwest from several nighttime MCSs in Sonora.
The 12 UTC TWC sounding (plot below from SPC) shows high PW, decent CAPE, but with nasty cap above old BL. Significant outflow needed again today to trigger storms away from mountains. Forecast at bottom from 12 UTC WRF-RRGFS is valid at 5:30 pm this afternoon. Model forecasts severe thunderstorms over metro and also to south (note earlier runs of WRF keep severe storms to south of metro). So another maybe day.
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