Cloudless skies this morning on the last day of September. Dry and cool with PW down around half an inch. MIMIC TPW analysis for 5:00 am MST (below) indicates high PW only down at south end of GoC.
Forecast however (above from 06 UTC WRF-GFS) brings much higher moisture back into southern Arizona as TS Narda moves up the GoC. There is a very large area of quite cold convective cloud tops (IR below, also for 5:00 am) with Narda, as she moves toward the lower end of the GoC.
At bottom is NHC forecast for Narda, bringing her up GoC to 30 degrees north by Thursday morning. Current WRF models are forecasting showers and possible thunderstorms our area by Thursday morning. So, our hopes for first October rain will be linked with the evolution of Narda this week.
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