Models Wobbling

View of Catalinas at about 8:30 am MST this morning shows high-based cumulus field and only a bit of smoke along right side of image.

Forecast above is from the 12 UTC WRF-RR at Atmo and is valid at 5:00 pm tomorrow afternoon. Model forecasts a very nice return of moisture from GoC into southern Arizona.

However, models forecast only slight amounts of precipitation at most. Above is from same model run for precipitation through 5:00 am on July 2nd. The forecast of precipitation below is from 06 UTC GFS and is valid through same period - keeps all precipitation south of border. Apparently warm temperatures in middle levels keep convective activity fairly suppressed - much different than yesterday's forecasts which indicated good chances for decent storms to start July (see previous post).

The forecast plumes for QPF at the airport (bottom) are a mess, and indicate at best a chance for light showers any time from tomorrow afternoon through mid-week next week. Nothing much positive for a wet start to July in any of these forecasts.