Showers Over Much Of Metro

View looking toward the Catalinas at 7:00 pm MST last evening, showing showers over east portion of City.

There was abundant CG activity over much of eastern half of Pima County yesterday - above shows detected flashes through 0803 UTC. We had lightning and rumbling thunder here around 7:00 to 7:30 pm, but no rain.

ALERT data for 24-hours ending at 7:00 am this morning (above and below) shows numerous reports, but with a large gap over main metro area, extending to the northwest.

The GFS 500 mb forecast valid at 12 UTC tomorrow (above) shows a large trough that will be impacting Arizona during the next couple of days.

The 12 UTC WRF-HRRR forecast for total rainfall through 6:00 am tomorrow (above) indicates scattered showers across much of central and eastern Pima County. Table below from NWS this morning shows their forecasts for coming week for sites in southeastern Arizona. The POPs remain high for Tucson through Saturday. I had to start watering yard plants yesterday, because of the long dry spell here.

 

Quick Update August 11th

View of sunrise east of Catalinas this morning at about 5:45 am MST.

Plot of detected CG flashes through 0833 UTC this morning shows no activity over eastern Pima County yesterday (above, from Atmo). There was no rainfall across entire ALERT Network yesterday, making past nine days completely dry - last rain here was during early am of August 1st.

The 12 UTC WRF-HRRR forecast from Atmo (above) keeps things dry through noon tomorrow. However, current forecast from NWS (below) indicates increasing POPs at airport through Wednesday.

Isolated Showers Yesterday

View toward Redington Pass at 6:30 am MST tis morning.

The 500 mb analysis this morning (above) shows a large anticyclone extending from northern Baja across western Texas and Oklahoma, northeastward all the way across Michigan and into Canada. There are several circulation centers within the anticyclone.

Plot of detected CG flashes for 24-hours ending at 0833 UTC today (above, from Atmo) shows that lightning activity stayed mostly south and southeast of Pima County. However, there were several isolated, light showers across parts of the ALERT Network (below, for 24-hours ending at 8:00 am this morning).

The 06 UTC WRF-GFS forecast (below) shows only a small area of showers over the main metro area through noon tomorrow.

TS Ivo

View looking toward Redington Pass at 4:50 am this morning. Bright object is a helicopter zipping westward.

IR image (above, from 1730 UTC today) shows TS Ivo off of Cabo Corrientes. Current NHC forecast (below) takes Ivo west-northwestward, and then westward, on a track that  should push very high amounts of TPW into Arizona.  TPW at 1500 UTC is shown in second panel below.

 Although the first week of August was very dry across Arizona, the long-term GFS forecast (below) shows very high rainfall amounts over southeastern Arizona and the Rim Country through the 23rd.

Very Suppressed Yesterday

View of the Catalinas at 5:00 pm MST yesterday afternoon.

The day was very suppressed, with no rain across the ALERT Network (above), and no detected CG flashes (below) over all of Arizona. Certainly not a typical August day.

Bit More Rain

View of Catalinas at 7:00 pm MST yesterday evening. 

A light shower built-in from the south about 8:30 pm, with some thunder and another 0.04" of rain, making total for the 1st of 0.24". I checked my records since 1999 and the wettest July was 6.90" in 2021, and the driest July was 0.49" in 2000.

The eastern Pacific remains quite active, with Gil becoming a Cat. 1 hurricane last evening. All activity is expected to remain well south of our region.

There were isolated showers around last evening, as per ALERT data (above, for 24-hours ending at 7:00 am this morning).

The 06 UTC GEFS plumes for QPF at airport (below) indicate a very quiet first week of August.

Rain on August 1st

Rain showers along the foothills last night just before midnight. Bottom shows bright CG flash about the same time.

Rain in the ALERT Network (through 8:00 am MST this morning - above) shows scattered reports north parts, with a heavy report of 0.63" south of Oro Valley. Gauge here caught 0.20" to start the month, with rain coming just after midnight.

July rainfall totals (above and below) show some heavy amounts in and near the Catalinas - we totaled 1.99" here at the house.

Isolated Showers Yesterday

View of Catalinas at 5:00 pm MST yesterday shows heavy clouds over the mountains.

Plot of detected CG flashes through 0733 UTC this early morning (above) indicates only a very few flashes in Arizona. Precipitation reports from the ALERT Network (below) show only 4 reports in and near the Catalinas. It was another rainless day here at the house.

The 06 UTC GEFS plumes for QPF are not promising for the coming week (above). The 12 UTC WRF-RR forecast through the last day of July (below) has only light showers over parts of eastern Pima County, with heaviest rain amounts staying in New Mexico.

Showers This Evening?

Pre-sunrise color at 5:30 am MST this morning, looking toward Redington Pass.

There were no detected CG flashes across Arizona yesterday, as shown by the 24-hour plot (above, from Atmo) ending at 1033 UTC (0333 am).

This morning's seven day outlook from the NHC (above) shows an active Pacific, including Cat. 1 Hurricane Iona over the Central Pacific. Off the southwestern coast of Mexico, there is a 90 percent chance that a depression or storm will develop by the end of the week.

Large anticyclone continues to dominate

much of eastern US (above, from SPC). There is a large, inverted trough over northern Mexico; however, the missing 500 mb data over New Mexico and Colorado keep us from knowing how far north this feature extends.

Forecast from the 15 UTC run of the WRF-HRRR at Atmo (above) shows just a bit of light shower activity over Pima County through midnight. The current morning forecast from the NWS Office is shown below. Forecast indicates 20 to 50 precent POPS for all periods through coming seven days.

Possible Showers At End Of Month

Sunrise, with a bit of contrail, looking toward Redington Pass at about 6:00 am MST.

Yesterday was a rare July day with no detected CG flashes across the entire state, as per plot above for 24-hours ending at 0703 UTC (a bit after midnight last night - from Atmo).

The QPF plumes from the 06 UTC GEFS runs (above, for airport) keep things dry until first part of next week.The total precipitation forecast from the 06 UTC run of the WRF-GFS at Atmo (below) shows no rainfall in Arizona through noon on Monday.

The 06 UTC GFS forecast for 500 mb (below, valid at 06 UTC on the 29th) shows a huge anticyclone dominating most of the country with an inverted trough approaching eastern Arizona, which will bring the showers indicated on the GEFS QPF plumes.

Light Showers Here

Some pre-dawn color this morning looking toward Redington Pass at 5:45 am MST. Down at bottom is view looking the same direction, showing a bright, partial rainbow at 6:40 pm yesterday.

Plot of detected CG flashes (for 24-hours ending at 0803 UTC - 0103 am - from Atmo) shows abundant lightning across eastern Pima County. There was frequent thunder here but only a light, late afternoon, shower. Plot of ALERT Network data (below - for 24-hours ending at 7:00 am this morning) indicates mostly light amounts of rainfall. Atmo reported 0.27"; we had 0.04"; TUS had 0.01" and DM reported thunder with gusts to 36 mph but only a Trace of rain. Note the heavy amounts around and south of Vail.

The 06 UTC plumes for QPF at the airport (above) indicate a long dry period into early next week. The plumes for temperature (below) indicate warming temperatures, until early next week. The GEFS POPs (second below) indicate 50 to 60 percent chances for showers early next week, toward the end of July.