Slight Chances Showers

Sunrise and some cloud cover over Redington Pass this morning.

Rainfall totals (above) for 24-hours ending at 9:00 am MST this morning shows there were light showers off to the southeast of the metro area - from CoCoRaHS at Atmos Dept. Colorado State University.

Forecast below from NWS Forecast Office indicates continued slight chances for showers today and tomorrow.

Gusty Winds And Dust

A dusty, orange sunrise over Redington Pass this morning. At bottom is view of dust coming in from east over the Catalinas at 6:50 am MST this morning.

Correction - I did not read closely enough. Advisory was issued Friday and timing was correct.

Wind advisory seems a bit off in its timing, since observations from the airport (below) show the wind has been gusting around 25 to 40 mph continuously since around 9:00 pm MST last evening.

However, current forecast for the airport shows the blowing dust happening this morning.

The 06 UTC plumes for QPF show all members indicating light rainfall at the airport tomorrow into next Tuesday. The GEFS POPs (below) reach up to around 40 percent Monday evening into Tuesday. March is not going out like a lamb this year.

March Winding Down

Bit of color over the Rincons at 6:05 am MST this morning.

While March has not been very stormy so far, it certainly has been hot. Graphic (above) from the NWS shows the many records that have been set across southeast Arizona.

Current forecasts indicate a somewhat unsettled end of the month. The forecast above shows precipitation totals through the end of the month from the 06 UTC run of the GFS model. Below is the GFS 500 mb forecast valid at 18 UTC on 30 March, showing a weak shortwave over Arizona.

 The plumes from the 06 UTC GEFS runs are shown here through the 30th. QPF plumes for the airport (above) indicate activity for the 29th into the 31st. While the temperature forecasts (below) indicate considerable cooling for the last several days of the month.

The plumes indicate strong winds on the 28th (above), while POPs at the airport peak around 60 percent (below). So, it's looking like an interesting end of the month wrt weather here in our part of Arizona, as well as for much of the state.

Tri-State Tornado

See the following papers in Electronic Journal of Severe Storm Meteorology (EJSSM Vol 8 2013):

St. Patrick's Day

 

Happy St. Patrick's Day 2026!

The Chicago River has been dyed green (above). A parade through the streets of Dublin, Ireland (below) - don't know what's with the big rabbit? The Sydney, Australia Opera House with green lighting (bottom).

Storm Reports Yesterday

 

It was a very active severe storm day yesterday. Reports, above from the Storm Prediction Center, approached 700.

It's Pi Day

 Today - March 14 (3-14) is pi day. The numerical value of pi is: 3.14159265....and on and on.

As for me, make mine pecan!

Update

 

View of the Rincons around 6:30 am MST this morning.

There was no more rain yesterday after the morning post, so total for the event here was 0.27". This was the most rain since the 0.34" on January 23rd and 24th.

Lingering Showers

Heavy clouds over Tucson and the Catalinas at 8:00 am MST this morning. Image at bottom shows a snippet of a rainbow at 4:00 pm yesterday afternoon.

Considerable CG flashes with the storms yesterday late - plot of flashes above for 24-hurs ending at 0833 UTC early this morning (from Atmo). There were several crashes of thunder here around 4:00 pm.

Rain amounts of 0.04" or more occured at almost all of the ALERT sites during the 24-hours ending at 9:30 am this morning (above and below), with greatest amounts out west of here along the Interstate. We had 0.27" in the gauge this morning.

Radar base-scan from 9:30 am (above) indicates a few lingering showers over eastern Pima County. These are moving to the southwest, as the upper low is centered south of Tucson. Current forecast from the NWS (below) for the airport indicates a rapid warm-up after today's unsettled weather.

Showers Today and Tonight

Clear skies looking toward the Rincons a bit before 7 am MST this morning.

The 06 UTC GEFS plumes for QPF at airport (above) indicate showers late today, continuing through the night. Average amounts are around 0.30". 

Plumes for temperature (above) indicate a rapid cool down for tomorrow, followed by a rapid rebound to very warm temperatures. The GEFS POPs hit 100 percent during the night (below).

Current morning forecasts from the NWS (above and below) indicate POPs at the airport reaching 90 percent tonight. Last rainfall here at house was well over two weeks ago, so some rain would be much appreciated.

Chances For Showers By End Of Week

Pink clouds over the Catalinas at about a quarter to 7 am MST this morning.

The 06 GEFS plumes are shown here for the coming week. Plumes for QPF  (above) indicate increasing chances for showers by Sunday, continuing into next week. Last rainfall here at house was only 0.01" back on February 17th, so a fairly long dry spell continues for a few more days.

The POPs (above) peak at around 50 percent on next Monday. Temperatures are forecast to cool considerable after tomorrow (below). Strong and gusty winds are indicated for tomorrow however (second below).

Brief Summaries

 

Perfectly clear skies here in Tucson, a bit before 10:00 am MST on Tuesday, March 2nd.

Summary 2025: Total rainfall here at the house during 2025 was 10.14". This is a tie for the 7th driest year here, since 1999, with 2002. The driest year was 2020, with only 5.48". There was thunder here on at least 18 days - may have missed a few due to my poor hearing.

Summary for winter (December, January, and February) 2025/2026: Total winter rainfall (no snow here) was 1.90". This was the 9th driest winter since 1999. The driest winter here (2005/2006) saw only 0.04" of rain! I did not note any days with thunder during the past winter.