Light Showers Around

Hazy skies at 7:30 am MST this morning.

Showers were scatterered around the metro area last night. Reports from MesoWest at Univ. of Utah (below) are for 24-hours ending at 8:00 am. We had only 0.02" here shortly after dark.

Quick Update Valentine's Day

View of the Catalinas at 9:00 am MST this morning.

GFS forecast of 500 mb pattern (above, valid at 06 UTC tonight) shows sharp trough moving across Arizona.

Plumes from the 06 UTC GEFS runs show: all members forecasting measurable, but light, rainfall at the airport late this afternoon (above);  Cool temperatures for tomorrow (below); and windy conditions later today (second below).

The 12 UTC run of the WRF-HRRR at Atmo (above) shows little precipitation over southern Arizona through 06 UTC tomorrow night. The current am forecast from the NWS (below) is more agressive - we'll watch how this plays out.

Showers Later This Week?

Cloud-obscured sunrise this morning.

The 06 UTC GEFS plumes for QPF at airport (above) indicate chances for light showers around Valentine's Day at end of the week. Amounts indicated are mostly very light.

Temperatures (above) cool a bit but remain mild. Plumes indicate windy conditions (below) tomorrow and again on Valentine's Day.

The 06 UTC WRF-GFS (below) forecasts dry conditions across southern Arizona for the rest of the week. February continues rainless so far.

A Look At January

 
Snow cover in Summerhaven on morning of January 30th.

January was a very quiet weather month here. Noted in my weather log: a light sprinkle and east winds to 30 mph afternoon of the 8th; morning low of 22 F on the 12th; afternoon showers and 0.13" on afternoon of 29th. Total of 0.13" was a tie for 8th driest January since I started records in 1999.

Yesterday's high of 86 F tied the record set back in 1925.

It's Groundhog Day

Punxsutawney Phil saw his shadow this morning, so he's predicting six more weeks of winter. But, there's been very little winter here in Tucson so far.

Light Rain Here Yesterday

Light snow cover this morning up in Summerhaven.

ALERT precipitation amounts for 24-hours ending at 8:00 am this morning (above and below). Amounts were light and mostly occurred over northern 2/3rds of the network. Note that some higher elevation locations had only snow. Here at house there was 0.13" of rain yesterday afternoon - first measurable rain of 2025 here.

The large, 500 mb low is centered over northeastern New Mexico this morning,  with a sharp trough axis just east of Tucson.

The 06 UTC GEFS plumes for temperature (above) show dramatic warming into middle of next week. Longer tern GFS outlook (from 06 UTC run - below) indicates dry conditions over most of the Southwest through Valentine's Day.

Light Rain To End Month

View of clear skies and Catalina Mountains from campus at 7:30 am MST this morning.

At 500 mb (above) there is a significant, closed low over southwestern California. The 06 UTC run of the GFS forecast indicates this low will be moving  across Arizona at 06 UTC on the 29th (below).

Temperatures will cool as the low comes by (GEFS plumes for temperature at airport, above) and then warm dramatically during the coming weekend. The plumes for QPF at airport (below) indicate best chances for measurable rain during Wednesday this week, as the 500 mb low moves across Arizona.

Forecast for total precipitation above (from 12 UTC run of the WRF-HRRR at Atmo) shows light amounts through noon on Thursday across most of eastern Pima County. The current forecast from the NWS Forecast Office (below) calls for 70 percent chances of measurable rain at the airport on Wednesday.

Good chances for some weather to watch as January comes to an end.