Urban Wildlife Encounters

First - several reports of snakes here on our circle. One neighbor discovered a 6 ft rattlesnake in her courtyard at the end of last week. I've never seen a rattler here in the neighborhood, nor on my morning walks along the Rillito Wash. Another neighbor reports that a large bull snake has taken up residence in her yard. A couple of weeks ago a neighbor re-located a king snake from across the circle down to near the Rillito.

This morning a bit after 5 am I encountered a herd of 11 javelina near the intersection of Country Club and Allen (about a block north of the house toward the Rillito). About as many as shown in the photo above (not my photos - just examples of what I'm writing about). There were four large adults, 3 that appeared to be about a year old, and four tiny ones that were probably only a week or two old. The adults were VERY protective, and one stood on the path about 10 yards ahead of me making sure that I didn't come closer, and believe me, I certainly didn't. The little ones were even smaller than one shown below. I've seen a herd of five several times in the past, and this may have been them with new arrivals.

The wildlife sightings reflect the increasing severity of the continuing drought. Lack of water in the foothills of the Catalinas is causing animals to seek water and more abundant prey in the fringes of the city, where both are more easily found. It is said that Tucson is the most dangerous city in the country for domestic cats that are allowed outside.

Dry Pattern Continues For Southwest

The large-scale pattern across North America remains very stable and the outlook for precipitation over the Southwest remains bleak. Here at the house the total rainfall for March through May to date is a scant 0.28".
The above graphic shows total 10-day precipitation forecast by the NWS GFS Global model (operational version). The pattern seems remarkably stable to me as per the graphic below, which is the GFS Ensemble spaghetti chart and average heights for 500 mb out at 10-days. Very small spread over North America for this far out - all the spaghetti is over on the other side of the hemisphere. So, the long-term drought continues in this part of the country.

Alvin - A Comeback?

Latest from NHC

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

1. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF ALVIN...IS
LOCATED ABOUT 900 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA MEXICO. ALTHOUGH SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CONTINUES TO BE WELL-DEFINED...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY REMAINS DISORGANIZED.  ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW IS
EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED DUE TO UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT
10 TO 15 MPH.

TS Alvin RIP

Tropical Storm Alvin has now dissipated, vanishing as quickly as it developed. The early NHC forecasts for this storm basically were a complete bust, with the storm evolving much differently than was first anticipated.

Wednesday afternoon (15 May) a number of tornadoes occurred in north Texas. The most deadly was an estimated EF-4 that struck Granbury, Texas, just southwest of Ft. Worth. The Granbury tornado killed six people and injured more than 100. Photo above is un-credited and is of a tornado near Milsap, Texas. The NWS Dallas-Ft. Worth Office has a preliminary damage survey up on their web page that documents 16 different tornadoes within a fairly small area of Texas.

Boundary Layer Has Cooled Some

The early WRF-GFS forecast of the Tucson skew-T for 5 pm MST this afternoon (16 May 2013) indicates a more shallow and cooler boundary layer than we had earlier this week. Looks like another afternoon with gusty, dry southwest winds.

Above is the current NHC forecast for TS Alvin, indicating the storm will stay at fairly low latitudes during the forecast period. Alvin is characterized by a number of clusters of convection this morning and appears to be poorly organized.

Names For Eastern Pacific Tropical Storms - 2013

Update - the NHC has declared the first depression of the season to now be TS Alvin. The system is forecast to move toward the west-northwest and intensify to become the season's first hurricane.

The NHC has upped the likelihood that a tropical system will develop in the eastern Pacific, where today is the first day of the official "season" - see above. The names for Eastern Pacific storms this year (through M) will be:

Alvin
Barbara
Cosme
Dalila
Erick
Flossie
Gil
Henriette
Ivo
Juliette
Kiko
Lorena
Manuel

Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season Starts Tomorrow

From NHC - A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS FORMED ABOUT 650 MILES SOUTH OF ACAPULCO MEXICO. GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ADDITIONAL SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS WILL BE ISSUED IF NECESSARY...AND ROUTINE OUTLOOKS WILL BEGIN AT 5 AM PDT TOMORROW.

Morning Virga And A Few Sprinkles

Yesterday's early WRF-GFS forecast was quite accurate - see previous post. The radar composite image from NWS TUS (above) at 0439 am MST shows echoes similar to the model forecast. The observed TUS morning sounding at 12 UTC 14 May (below) is also very similar to the model forecast.

Visible satellite image from 1345 UTC this morning shows a band of clouds and buildups (above). There were a few sprinkles about, but the high-based buildups produced mostly virga and some mammatus. there was a brief whiff of rain in the air here at the house a bit after 5 am. Images below were taken around 6 am MST this morning. The early WRF-GFS today forecasts a few light echoes over eastern Pima County this afternoon but keeps more significant echoes to the east and south - will check the morning forecasts later today (note added:  Mike Leuthold reports that there were problems with the morning runs).