Monday, May 29, 2017

In Memoriam - Timothy Alan Maddox


My oldest son, Tim (46), died suddenly this Mother’s Day evening at Banner University Medical Center in Tucson.  

He was an accomplished artist and a talented gardener/landscaper, who had expert-level knowledge of horticulture and tropical fishes.  He created beauty and generously shared his work and talents.  Tim loved nature, animals, and was fascinated by astronomy.  We will terribly miss his shy smile and wry sense of humor, but also know that he is finally at peace.



Thursday, May 11, 2017

Tropical Storm Adrian Has Come And Gone


Tropical Storm Adrian formed from One-E (above) and was the earliest Eastern Pacific storm on record. However, the storm has already dissipated and the early forecasts for Adrian (below) ended up as serious busts.



Wednesday, May 10, 2017

Crisp Cool Morning Here


Cool morning here at house with low temperature of 44 F.  Some cloudiness continues this morning, as the photos here from around 07:00 am MST show.



The WRF forecasts from Atmo were quite good for this event, capturing the Tucson donut hole and forecasting no rain at the airport yesterday - which is what occurred. DM did have 0.01" yesterday and here at house we added 0.07" during afternoon showers, making our total for the event 0.10". The ALERT map above is for 24-hours ending at 07:00 am this morning - shows the donut hole quite nicely, as well as some rain amounts near and over a quarter of an inch around the Tucson Mountains and along I-10.

The CG flash density plot below is for 48-hours ending at 07:00 am - the northeast half of state had considerably more thunderstorm activity than rest of state. 


Tuesday, May 09, 2017

Closed 500 mb Low To Move By Later Today



The Catalinas were draped with clouds early this morning (top), after mostly mountain rains yesterday and last night. Plot just above of ALERT rainfall for 24-hours ending at 06:30 am MST - rain amounts of 0.04" were very spotty over lower elevations - we had 0.03" here and airport had 0.02". Amounts of a quarter inch and more held mostly to the Catalinas and Redington Pass. The CG flash density plot (below - from weather.graphics and Vaisala) indicates some thunderstorm activity over southeast Arizona. Those storms occurred mostly in the late afternoon with nothing nearby during the night. Severe hailstorms over eastern Colorado and new Mexico were prolific lightning producers.



The 500 mb plot above for 12 UTC this morning indicates the closed low is somewhere to our west-southwest. Models forecast the circulation to move nearly overhead late today and tonight. The TWC sounding has the coldest observed 500 mb temperature in the Southwest, but there may be a bit of colder air to our west.

The morning sounding (below) has very limited CAPE, and the WRF forecasts keep it low during the day today, due to warmer air above 600 mb capping the low-levels. I suspect that there will be enough heating for showers to develop in our area, even though models forecast little in the way of additional precipitation.





Monday, May 08, 2017

Early Tropical Activity


The eastern Pacific Tropical Storm Season officially begins May 15th, but the NHC is already providing outlook for two disturbances. The current two day outlook is above and the five day outlook is below, indicating that development of the eatern system is likely.





Good Chance For Light May Rains


GEFS plumes for QPF (from the 06 UTC 8 May run) at the airport are forecasting 100 % POPs for tomorrow afternoon, with some chances for showers before and after. This is a another moisture-starved system that is carrying along a limited pool of PW with it - same as all of our Spring events this year. The 06 UTC WRF-GFS forecast from Atmo (below) forecasts a Tucson donut hole, with better amounts at higher elevations - the forecast is for total precipitation through 11:00 am MST on Thursday.



Forecast soundings from that WRF-GFS run indicate enough CAPE at TWC for thunderstorms - sounding above is valid at midnight tonight and that below is valid at 02:00 pm tomorrow afternoon. Both indicate upward vertical velocity through the important mixed-phase zone from -10 to -20 C, and the nighttime sounding (if it verified) would have strongest upward motion through that zone. Perhaps a crash of thunder at some spots during the night tonight? Note also that steering winds tonight favor very fast-moving storms heading toward the north-northwest.



Sunday, May 07, 2017

Some Thunderstorms This Afternoon


There have been some thunderstorms around southeast Arizona during the last couple of hours, in addition to some very light sprinkle showers. Radar above is composite image for about 05:00 pm MST and graphic below shows CG flash density during the past two hours (from weathergraphics.com and Vaisala).  I also have noted that the hourly digital forecast for TUS have gone considerably awry during the afternoon hours today, as the temp trends downward and wind shifts occurred considerable earlier than the models forecast. Very welcome change to cooler and higher RH conditions today.



Saturday, May 06, 2017

New Wild Fire Along Highway 83

We have just returned from Santa Rita Abbey this afternoon along Highway 83. A new fire, The Mulberry fire, was burning on the east side of the Empire Mountains. This is north of the Sawmill fire burn area.


I took these photos about 03:30 pm MST this afternoon - views are looking north-northeast from the side of Highway 83. The burn area below is from the Sawmill fire. The channel 2 image at bottom shows the hotly burning portion of the fire as bright white pixels. Based on the smoke plume behavior we observed, the fire was expanding very rapidly. Winds in the area of the fire have been gusting 40 to 50 mph this afternoon.