Monday, April 22, 2024
Saturday, April 06, 2024
Light Sprinkles
Added comment - I forgot to make note of the wind gusts yesterday and will add here:
Numerous sites reported gusts of 45 to 50 mph yesterday. I found 5 sites with gusts over 50 mph in southeastern Arizona. Tucson reported gusts to 53 mph as did Empire ranch; Ft. Huachuca had 52 mph; Pioneer Airfield reported 60 mph, and Guthrie reported 67 mph. I estimate that we had gusts here at house in the 50 to 55 mph range. It was a cold, nasty wind.
Golden skies over the Catalinas at 6:00 am this Saturday morning.
There were light showers and sprinkles scattered around the metro area after midnight last night. The plots (above and below - from ALERT and MesoWest) show that showers mostly avoided the metro area and amounts were all 0.04" or less. It does not appear to have rained any here at the house.
Thursday, April 04, 2024
Windy Tomorrow
Sunrise this morning at about 6:10 am MST.
Forecast of 500 mb level from 06 UTCGFS (above) valid at 00 UTC on 6 April. Below is forecast for 250 mb from the same model run - note the very strong upper-level jet over southeastern Arizona with maximum speeds over 150 kt.
Forecast above (from 12 UTC WRF-RR run at Atmo) is for total precipitation through 2:00 am on Saturday the sixth - just a bit of light precipitation over parts of Pima County. Forecast below is for wind speeds from the same model run valid at 2:00 pm tomorrow afternoon, showing quite strong winds at the airport.
Morning statement and forecast for the airport from the NWS forecast Office (above and below) emphasizing the strong wind conditions tomorrow. Note that it has been wet lately, making blowing dust a long-shot for the airport.
Wednesday, April 03, 2024
Brief Summary - March
View of the Rincons before sunrise on March 14, 2024.
Total rainfall here at the house during March was 1.55 inches. This was the wettest March since I started my precipitation observations, besting the previous high of 1.27 inches in 2020.
There was measurable rainfall on 6 days, with the highest amount being 0.65 inches on March 31st. I did not hear thunder during the month, but there were a couple of days that the CG flashes indicate I probably missed hearing it.
Tuesday, April 02, 2024
More Re Rain Event
View toward Redington Pass at 5:15 am MST this early morning.
ALERT network data for 24-hours ending at 7:oo am this morning (above and below) again show almost 100 percent coverage, but with amounts smaller than those yesterday. Here at house we had an additional 0.25" for a total event amount of 0.35".
Monday, April 01, 2024
Widespread Precipitation Event
Morning showers on the Catalinas at 7:30 am April 1st - no fooling.
Sunday, March 31, 2024
Morning Showers
Showers on the Catalinas already this Easter morning(view above from 7:50 am MST). Light sprinkles here at house.
The 12 UTC GEFS plumes for QPF at the airport (above) don't get things really started here until around noon.
The 12 UTC runs of the WRF-RR at Atmo show a similar scenario - above is total precipitation through noon and below shows total precipitation through midnight tonight.
Friday, March 29, 2024
Showers Likely On Easter
Some pre-sunrise color at about 6:05 am MST this morning - looking toward the Rincons.
The 500 mb forecast from 06 UTC GFS run showing strong trough from eastern Idaho south to central Baja. Precipitation forecast (from 06 UTC WRF-GFS - below) indicates significant precipitation event for most of Arizona through 5:00 am on Tuesday, April 2nd. The GEFS plumes from 06 UTC (second below) indicate averages for airport around 0.75".
Wednesday, March 27, 2024
Showers Last Evening
Storm in foothills at 4:50 pm MST yesterday afternoon. This one skipped by to our east, but there were heavy showers later, around 7:00 to 7:30 pm at the house. View at bottom is looking toward Redington Pass at 5:25 am this morning.
GEFS plumes from 06 UTC runs (above) are for precipitation at the airport. Plumes indicate an active, showery period on the 31st of March and 1st of April. The 500 mb forecast (below, from the 06 UTC run of the GFS) indicates a deep, positively-tilted trough over the Southwest at 00 UTC on April second - next Tuesday.
Monday, March 25, 2024
Showers Here Again
View toward the Rincons at 6:15 am MST shows a bit of color.
Light rains fell over much of the lower elevation Alert sites during the past 24-hours ending at 7:30 am this morning (above and below). Here at the house there were showers late in the afternoon and a couple of times during the night. Gauge showed 0.11" this morning.
The 06 UTC QPF plumes (below) suggest that a more significant event may develop for the first day or two of April.
Finally, there was a strange disconnect regarding the forecast on the NWS TUS website. Above graphic (issued 4:08 am) indicates fairly high POPs for today. However, the point forecast for the airport (below - issued at 5:47 am) indicates only slight chances for showers today.
Sunday, March 24, 2024
Update Midday Sunday
Snowy morning up in Summerhaven - view above is from 9:50 am MST.
ALERT plots (above and below) show rain amounts across the network for 24-hour period ending at 6:00 am this morning. Note that rain event occurred mostly from 3 to 5 am, early this morning. Here the house we had 0.25", as did Atmo; the airport reported 0.30" and DM had 0.36". Plot of detected CG flashes (second below - from Atmo and Vaisala) is for 24-hours ending at 1703 UTC this morning. There were thunderstorms in Pima County but they mostly avoided the metro area. Note that the airport did record a wind gust to 45 mph at 3:53 am.