Storms Forecast Today

Half moon over northern Rincons just after midnight last night. Other object is a police or hospital helicopter over the city.

Plumes for QPF at the airport (above from 06 UTC runs of the GEFS) indicate chances for light showers most days of coming week. Note that the operational GFS (blue trace) is a seriously heavy outlier. The POPs at the airport (from same runs - below) reach toward 60 percent next Sunday night.

Morning NWS graphic above re storm chance today and current morning forecast for the airport (below). Note the continuing extreme heat warning for our area.

Interesting there was a report of a landspout tornado just south of Joseph City (SPC reports map above), Arizona yesterday afternoon from a motorist on I-40. Joseph City is just west of Holbrook and is most famous for the Jack Rabbit Trading Post (sign below). Note that the trading post is actually six miles west of Joseph City.

June Summary

View of the Catalinas at about 9:30 am MST this morning showing perfectly clear skies.

June ended with measurable rainfall here on 3 days, with most rain falling on the 15th and 17th - 0.19" and 0.38". This was somewhat unusual with the middle of the month being active. Total  for month was 0.61" with thunder here at house on two days. This was the fifth wettest June since 1999, when I started my records.

The 06 UTC GEFS plumes for QPF at the airport (above) indicate indicate increasing chances for rain after the 6th of July. The GEFS POPs at airport (below) reach to almost 30 percent on the 8th next week.

Far to the southwest, TS Douglas developed late yesterday. Current NHC track forecast above indicates Douglas will remain a TS and dissipate by tomorrow. Satellite shows Douglas as a disorganized cluster of deep convection at northwest corner of 14 UTC IR image (below).

Light Showers Yesterday

View of showers over western Catalinas and this part of town at 4:15 pm CST yesterday afternoon.

ALERT rainfall reports for 24-hours ending at 9:00 am this morning. We had frequent thunder and 0.04" here at the house around 3 to 5 pm yesterday afternoon. The airport and Atmo had no rainfall , while DM reported a Trace.

The 06 UTC GEFS plumes for QPF indicate a dry week ahead (above).

The current NWS forecast for the airport (below) highlights fire weather conditions tomorrow and Sunday.

As for the monsoon storm season: an old, empirical definition used to require three consecutive days with an average daily dewpoint of 60 F or higher. Current Td tracker (below) shows that we have yet to have one such day. Current GFS forecasts indicate that the Four-Corners anticyclone does not set up until after July 4th. So, things are off to a slow start this year.

Summer Solstice

Yesterday was the summer solstice and the longest day of the year in the northern hemisphere. Photos of the solstice at Stonehenge above and below.

Quick Update

 

Photo of double rainbow by neighbor John Ferner, taken Wednesday afternoon

My previous post reported some poles down west of airport. However, the morning paper today reported there were many poles down that afternoon and evening across southern parts of Tucson. Only a single report made it into the SPC data base.

Heavy Storms

Heavy rain on Catalinas about 5:15 pm MST yesterday afternoon. View of orange rain at bottom was around 7 pm when sun broke-thru to illuminate the rain.

Plot of detected CG flashes (from Atmo for 24 hours ending at 0733 UTC, above), shows heavy activity across eastern Pima County. There were several loud crashes of thunder here at house. There was also a report of power poles down a bit west of the airport,

Rain amounts across the ALERT Network for 24-hours ending at 9:00 am this morning (above and below) show widespread reports with a couple of sites exceeding an inch. Here at the house we had 0.38"; DM had 0.33"; while Atmo and airport reported 0.65".

Local Outlook

Sunrise east of the Catalinas this morning.

The local NWS outlook here is for a chance of severe thunderstorms with damaging winds (above). However, SPC outlook for today keeps severe storm risks far to northeast of our area. The current NWS forecast for the airport is second below.

Update And Monsoon "Start"

View looking toward the Rincons at around 4:30 am MST this morning.

There is an article in the the morning paper that states the 2026 monsoon has arrived, right on time. However, this is based on the NWS definition of a "Monsoon Season" running from June 15th to September 30th. This definition ignores the actual meteorological conditions that might be prevailing.

Yesterday's 0.19" of rainfall presents an example of the problems of the seasonal definition.

The rainfall was associated with a weak shortwave that sneaked in from the Pacific - consider the 500 mb charts from the 06 UTC GFS forecasts.

The 500 mb chart for this morning (above) shows the weak disturbance over Arizona. The 7-day forecast (below) shows the typical monsoon high at 500 mb situated across central Baja, with a weak trough still across Arizona. The fourteen day forecast (bottom) indicates a large trough dominating the western US at 500 mb. There is no indication in the forecasts of the typical Four-Corners anticyclone that defines the summer monsoon circulation at 500 mb. So, if the forecasts are accurate, the start of the summer monsoon, from my perspective, remains several weeks away.

Stormy

Skies clearing at 11:00 am MST. Current rainfall reports across eastern portions of the ALERT Network (below) indicate amounts up to just over an inch. Here at house there is currently just 0.19" in the gauge.

Several periods of showers and some thunder beginning yesterday evening and continuing this morning. At 6:45 am (view above) there was only 0.06" in the gauge but more rain has fallen since. Will update things later today. Plot of detected CG flashes (below - from Atmo) shows considerable activity over eastern Pima County through 1443 UTC.

Mysterious Radar Echoes

Map above shows the Goldwater Range and the Army's Yuma Proving round, with I-8 stretching through a narrow corridor from Gila Bend to Yuma.

Tuesday afternoon (June 9th) I noticed some radar echoes out northeast of Yuma around 3:45 pm MST (above and below). The echoes were only present in the lowest two tilts of data and were moving north-northeastward. Skies were, however, perfect clear - see concurrent visible satellite image - second below. Note that bird and insect migrations usually occur in the evening and during the night. So what was going on?

I assume that some exercise or activity at Yuma Proving Ground injected chaff into the near-surface atmosphere. Below is some kind of big armament out at Yuma Proving ground. The echoes dissipated after an hour or so. There was no similar activity yesterday afternoon. There was also no mention of the strange echoes in either the Tucson or Phoenix NWS weather discussions covering the relevant times. This event was also reminiscent of the high-level chaff releases that the Air Force used to do over the Goldwater Range. 

Moonrise and Sunrise

Rising quarter moon, looking toward the Rincons about 2:30 am this morning. View at bottom is a bit before sunrise.

Plumes from GEFS rins at 06 UTC this morning. Above shows QPF amounts at the airport, indicating chances for light showers around the weekend.

The plumes for PW exceed and inch over the weekend (above); and POPs for the airport (below) stay under 30 percent. Will have to watch how the plume forecasts evolve as weekend approaches.

Tropical Storms Boris and Cristina

 

Tropical Storm Boris has developed early this morning over the eastern Pacific. As the NHC graphic (above) shows, Boris is just south of the coast of southern Mexico. The storm is forecast to be  short-lived and to move ashore this afternoon. 

Updated at 1800 UTC today 8 June: The NHC has upgraded the second disturbance in the eastern Pacific to Tropical Storm Cristina. Current track forecast shown below.

Summer Outlook

View toward the Rincons at 5:30 am this morning - a bit after sunrise.

This spring (Mar, Apr, and May) was relatively dry here with only a total of 0.66" of rain. Since 1999 this was the 11th driest spring. The wettest spring here was 2004 with 2.71", while the driest was in 2018 with only 0.03" for the three months.

The current NWS Climate Prediction Center (CPC) outlook for this summer is below - they expect the warmth over the West to continue, along with a slight chance for above normal rainfall. Of course, one big storm day here can determine the character of the entire summer - so we will watch to see how things evolve.