Brief, Heavy Shower Here

Heavy storm over north parts of metro at 4:00 pm MST yesterday. Down at bottom is view of nearly full moon and Jupiter rising in eastern sky at 4:00 am this morning.

Frequent CG flashes detected yesterday through 0843 UTC this morning (above from Atmo and Vaisala).

Widespread precipitation over much of the ALERT network through 8:00 am this morning (above and below). A couple of isolated amounts exceeded an inch. Here at house we had a quick 0.38" with thunder and wind gusts to 30 to 40 mph; TUS had thunder with gusts to 43 mph but no rain; DM had thunder and a Trace; and Atmo had a Trace and gusts to 37 mph.

Morning 500 mb analysis (above) shows the anticyclone shifted far to east with te Southwest under the influence of weak trough. The 06 UTC GFS run indicates that the Holiday weekend may be dry.

Outlook Through Fourth of July

Morning view at 5:40 am MST today looking toward Redington Pass and east end of the Catalinas.

Plot of detected CG flashes for 24-hours ending at 0733 UTC last night shows a distinct donut hole over most of the metro area (above, from Atmo and Vaisala). It was quite suppressed here at the house. Plot of ALERT network observations through 7:00 am this morning (below) shows light amounts around metro Tucson but little actually in the City.

Forecast from NWS Tucson this morning (above) indicates some continuing chance for showers today and tomorrow, followed by a sunny and hot Fourth of July. Forecast of rainfall from the 06 UTC WRF-GFS (below) indicates only light amounts across parts of eastern Pima County.

June Rainfall

 Quick summary: There was measurable precipitation on two days in June: 1.38" on the 22nd and 0.37" on the 28th. The total of 1.75" was the third greatest amount during a June since I started my records in 1999.

Down Day Yesterday

View toward Redington Pass at 5:25 am this morning.

Plot of detected CG flashes for 24-hours ending 0733 UTC (above, from Atmo and Vaisala) shows a fairly large hole covering most of metro area and extending south into Santa Cruz County. ALERT observations for 24-hours ending 7:00 am this morning (below) shows rainfall mostly avoided the metro area. Yesterday's WRF forecast did not verify well, nor did the NWS forecast POPs and Flash Flood Watch (see previous post). There was rumbling thunder here in 4 to 5 pm time-frame, but only a brief sprinkle.

At 500 mb this morning (above) the anticyclone is centered over Oklahoma, with much of Arizona under the influence of the western US trough. The morning sounding from TWC/TUS (below) appears considerably more favorable for deep convection than did yesterday's - see previous post. Precipitable water and CAPE are both high, and winds southerly to southwesterly.

The GEFS plumes for TUS (from the 06 UTC runs - above) indicate chances for light showers through the Fourth, but overall forecast a fairly quiet week. The 06 UTC GFS, however, forecasts an active second week in July (below) with heavy rainfall across southeastern Arizona.