Dangerous Wildfire Conditions

View of the Catalinas, with contrail, at 8:30 am MST this morning.

Conditions expected to be windy, hot, and dry today and tomorrow, leading to Red Flag Warnings - map for today's warning area shown above. Current NWS morning forecast is detailed below.

Windy Morning

View of the Catalinas at 7:00 am MST this Saturday morning.

It is quite windy here aong the Rillito this morning - estimated gusts 20 to 30 mph here at the house. Plot of wind gusts at 7:00 am from MesoWest (above).

Current forecast of maximum gusts today (above) from the NWS Forecast Office. GEFS plumes for wind from 06 UTC (below) indicate a windy start to the coming week.

Continued Showers - Updated

Heavy clouds over the Catalinas at 7:30 am MST, with fractus hugging the foothills.

Rain amounts of 0.04" and more covered the northwestern portions of the ALERT network for 24-hours ending at 7:30 am (above). Data for same period from MesoWest (below) show that measurable amounts were more widespread. Here at house there was 0.04" in the gauge at 7:30 am. NOTE - light additional shower or two brought total for event to 0.05".

The morning sounding from TWC/TUS (above) shows very deep moisture with a sliver of CAPE. At 7:30 am there were still some lingering showers over the metro area (below).

The 12 UTC 500 mb pattern (below) shows a large, Omega type block covering the continental US.

Scattered Showers

Clouds on the Catalinas at 7:35 am MST this morning. View at bottom from Summerhaven shows they had a skiff of snow up there.

Light showers yesterday ocuurred mainly over and around the mountains - note one site has gone bonkers. I didn't note any sprinkles here at the house.

The GEFS plumes for the next week indicate some chances for light showers today and tomorrow (above); temperatures warm toward the century mark by the end of week (below); with strong winds returning by the weekend (second below). 

Winds were strong around much of the state yesterday. The airport hit 37 mph; Douglas and Pioneer Airfield reported 47 mph; Winslow hit 49 mph; and the windy site at Gutherie was highest I found at 59 mph.

May Fourth

 

Today is often considered Star Wars Day.

May Day

 

Afternoon showers over the Catalinas on April 5th.

During all of April I measured only 0.01" of rain after a brief, pre-sunrise, sprinkle on the 19th. There was also a Trace on the afternoon of the 5th. This April came in as the eighth driest, since I started my records back in 1999. There had been 7 Aprils with no precipitation. Also of note was the earliest recording of a high temperature of 100 F at the airport on April 11th.

Dust Devil

 

Photo of a spectacular dust devil - taken near Casa Grande on Easter Sunday.

Today Is Earth Day

 

Dry Weather Continues

Perfectly clear skies over the Catalinas at 7:15 am MST this morning.

Even though a strong trough at 500 mb crosses Arizona on the 29th, the models currently keep it moisture-starved, with no precipitation. Plumes above are from the 06 UTC runs of the GEFS. Forecast below is from the GFS 06 UTC run, showing no precipitation over Arizona through 06 UTC on May 7th.

Light Showers

Early am showers over north side of metro at 3:40 am MST this morning.

ALERT observations for 24-hours ending at 7:00 am MST this morning (above) show only a few sites with 0.04" or more. However, observations from MesoWest for same 24-hours (below) indicate considerably more sites with light amounts less than 0.04". Here at house we had 0.01" around 3 to 4 am MST. The GEFS plumes yesterday (see below) were a reasonable forecast for the area.

Strange Forecast

Venus rising over the Rincons before sunrise yesterday morning.

Forecast from 11:00 am MST yesterday (above) seemed a bit strange, calling for blowing dust between 3 and 4 pm - assume that was a typo.

Forecast for maximum wind gusts yesterday (above) went for 33 mph at the airport. Winds were gusty during the afternoon, with the highest gust at airport coming in at 36 mph. However, there were no restrictions to visiblity at the airport.

Current GEFS plumes for QPF for the airport are shown below. All members are forecasting measurable (but very light) amounts. Current NWS forecast calls for only 30 percent POPs at the airport. At bottom is WRF-RR forecast (from 12 UTC today) indicating that precipitation stays north of our area through 5:00 pm tomorrow.

First 100 Degree Day

 

View of the Catalinas at 3:00 pm MST yesterday afternoon.

Note that the temperature on campus was reported as 100 F. The airport also reported an offical high of 100 F - this was the earliest in the Spring that the temperature has reached the century mark.

Few Sprinkles Around

View toward the Catalinas at 3:45 pm MST yesterday afternoon.

 There were a few reports of measurable rain yesterday around the Catalinas (above and below), and east toward Benson. Just a sprinkle here around 4:00 pm - not enough to wet the ground.

Not Much Of An Event

Looks like Summerhaven got a skiff of snow yesterday.

Precipitation plots through 8:00 am MST (above from MesoWest and below from ALERT network) show only a few sites with measurable rainfall. We had nothing here at the house.

Long-term forecast from 06 UTC GFS (below) forecasts almost nothing for Arizona through early Easter morning.

Chance For Showers

Some build-ups on the Rincons at 8:40 am MST this morning.

The 12 UTC 500 mb analysis (above) shows a large trough along the Colorado River that will move across Arizona today. The morning TWC/TUS sounding (below) indicates a sliver of CAPE, that may increase some as cooler, mid-level temperatures move overhead.

Various precipitation forecasts for today are shown here: above are the GEFS plumes from 06 UTC, indicating nearly 100 percent POPs at the airport; below is the 12 UTC WRF-RR forecast through 6:00 pm this evening showing precipitation across most of eastern Pima County; and at bottom is the current NWS POPs map for this afternoon. No rain here for past three weeks.

Dusty Start To April

 

Blowig dust over the Catalinas at 5:00 pm MST yesterday.

The airport had gusts to 49 mph in the afternoon. Strongest gusts I found in the observations: Safford and Guthrie both had 55 mph, and Winslow reported 51 mph. At one point late in day I-10 was closed both north and also east of Tucson due to crashes and low visibility from the blowing dust.

March Summary

 
 

A cloudy sunrise (with contrail) to start April.

During March there was only measurable rain here on four days - the 7th, 12th, 13th, and 15th - totaling 0.59". The showers actually occured mostly during the nights. This was a fairly typical March, coming in at the 13th driest spot. Forecast models indicate a very dry start for April, as our drought continues.