Light Showers Yesterday

Showers along the foothills yesterday afternoon at 1:45 pm MST.

The ALERT network data show light amounts scattered around the network for 24-hours ending at 7:00 am this morning. Here at house light showers in afternoon produced only 0.01"; the airport had 0.03"; DM reported 0.01"; and Atmo noted 0.02".

There were no detected CG flashes anywhere in the Southwest or northern Mexico during past 24 hours.

Looking ahead: the GEFS 06 UTC plumes for the airport are flat-lined at zero through 00 UTC on 12 December.

Morning After Thanksgiving

More color this morning, November 28th, at 6:50 am MST.

Extensive, standing wave clouds downwind from the Rockies (below) at 7:00 am this morning.

Red Skies On Thanksgiving

 

Nice pre-sunrise color on Thanksgiving morning. Have a great holiday.

Heavy Rains Yesterday

View of clouds and showers over Catalinas at 3:00 pm MST yesterday afternoon.

There were numerous CG flashes detected over eastern Pima County and southeast Arizona for the 24-hours ending at 1033 UTC this morning (above plot from Atmo).

There were widespread heavy rain amounts across the ALERT Network (above and below) for the 24-hours ending 10:00 am this morning. We had 0.79" here; TUS had 0.78"; and DM had 0.83".

Quick Update

Gray and somewhat dreary skies over Tucson this morning - view above from 9:00 am MST. Showers during the day added 0.06" to the morning total here yesterday, giving us rainfall of 0.40".

The 06 UTC GEFS plumes for QPF at the airport (above) are very focused on tomorrow and tomorrow night. The POPs from same runs approach 100 percent tomorrow (below).

The current NWS morning forecast for the airport is shown in graphic at bottom.

Rainy Night And Morning

Catalinas obscured by rain and clouds at 8:30 am MST this morning.

Plot of detected CG flashes shows that were thunderstorms in our area last evening around 10 pm or so. I certainly didn't hear any thunder though.

Reports of measurable rain came in from nearly all the ALERT sites for 24-hours ending at 10 am (above and below), with a number of sites reporting half an inch or more. Here at the house we had 0.34" through 10 am.

Unsettled Rest Of Week

View toward Rincons just before sunrise this morning.

GEFS plumes for QPF at airport (above) indicate several periods of showers through the weekend. Note that the operational GFS is a strong outlier. Plumes for POPs at airport (below) indicated showers this early am which didn't materialize, and very high POPs tonight into tomorrow morning.

Current morning forecast (above) from NWS for the airport through Thursday, with highest POPs for tonight. The GFS long range forecast of total precipitation (below - through Sunday at 5:00 pm MST) indicates heavy amounts for much of Arizona.

Light Showers Here

Pre-sunrise colors looking toward the Rincons at 6:30 am MST this morning.

There were light showers around the northern and far western portions of the ALERT network during the past 24 hours (above plot for for period ending at 8:00 this morning). There also reports of 0.04" at Altar Wash and Arivaca to the southwest of the area shown. Here at the house we had a total of 0.06" for the event, which started on afternoon of the 15th. This was first measurable rainfall since October 13th.

 

The GEFS plumes from 06 UTC runs (above and below) indicate an extended wet period beginning mid-week, The GEFS POPs peak at near 90 percent for the airport on Wednesday.

The 06 UTC GFS forecast above shows accumulated precipitation through 06 UTC on 1 Dec - amounts are heavy across much of the country. The morning forecast graphic below shows the morning forecast for temperatures and rainfall amounts for next few days. Product is more legible at the NWS FO web page.

Chance for Showers

Crescent moon rising over Tucson at 3:15 am MST this morning.

Morning 500 mb analysis (from SPC - above) shows a deep low off of California.

Plumes from the 06 UTC runs of the GEFS models - QPF above; temperature below; and wind second below. The forecasts indicate increasing POPs starting tonight and increasing through the week. Temperatures (below) are indicated to cool markedly after today; while gusty winds are likely tomorrow and Tuesday.

The POPs from the GEFS runs (above)  show values as high as 70 percent at the airport. The current morning forecasts from the NWS are shown in table below.

October Summary

 

Heavy rain on morning of 13 October - looking north toward the Catalinas from campus.

During October there was measurable rain on only two days - the 11th and the 13th. But amounts were heavy: 1.02" on the 11th and 1.22" on the 13th. The total of 2.24" was the third highest for October here since I started my records in 1999. Wettest October was 3.25" in 2018 and second wettest was 2.44" in 2015.

More Clear Skies

View of the Rincons at 6:00 am MST this morning showing Venus rising (top) with a helicopter passing below.

GFS forecast (from 06 UTC - above) showing total rainfall through 0600 UTC on November 12th - leaving the Southwest and northern Mexico very dry.

Below is IR view of Cat. 5 Hurricane Melissa this morning, about to strike Jamaica with winds of more than 155 mph. Melissa is forecast to cross eastern Cuba and then head out into the Atlantic.

Very Dry

View of very clear skies this morning over the Catalinas at 9:30 am MST.

The GEFS plumes from 06 UTC this morning (below) indicate no rainfall at the airport for the coming week!

Showers This Morning

View of Catalinas at 8:35 am MST this morning shows an isolated shower over the mountains.

First scan radar image (above for 8:25 am) shows isolated showers over eastern Pima County, and plot of detected CG flashes for 24-hours ending at 8:25 am (below) shows a couple of flashes over eastern Pima County, with more widespread activity to our northwest.

The 06 UTC GEFS plumes for QPF (above) show chances for light precipitation at the airport today. The POPs from the same runs (below) indicate 40 percent for the airport this afternoon. After today's activity the models indicate fair weather conditions through the weekend. 

Quick Look At Holiday Weekend

Heavy rain looking north from campus yesterday at 7:25 am MST.

Many sites across the ALERT Network had amounts of a half inch to over an inch yesterday (plots above and below for 24 hours ending at 7:00 am this morning). Here at the house we had 1.22 inches.

For the long holiday weekend many sites had amounts of one to four+ inches (three day amounts above and below). Here at the house we had 2.24 inches of much needed rain.