Chance For Showers

Small cumulus bubbling over the Catalinas at 6:50 am MST this morning.

Models continue to forecast a surge of higher PW into our area, and then a gradual dry-out during next week. Above shows PW plumes from the 06 UTC runs of the GEFS ensemble. Values reach almost to an inch and a half.

The plumes for QPF at the airport (below) have become quite agressive for tomorrow into Monday, with average amounts reaching half an inch.

Current forecast for weakening TS Alvin (above from NHC) indicates storm decaying near the south end of Baja today. However, the 13 UTC MIMIC chart of total PW (below) shows higher values have reached the southern border of Arizona.

Current NWS forecast for the airport (above) shows high POPS for Sunday and Sunday night, decreasing on Monday. Their forecast of amounts is shown below. 

I checked my records back to 1999 and found that there has never been measurable rainfall here at the house during the first five days of June - so rain tomorrow would be quite an unusual event!

Tropical Storm Alvin Forms

The first Tropical Storm of the season has developed far off the coast of southern Mexico. The current forecast from NHC (below) keeps the strom at TS strengths and brings it north across the south end of Baja by Sunday.

Rain Later This Week?

View of the Catalinas at 7 am MST this morning.

Plumes from the 06 UTC GEFS runs: above for QPF and below for PW. Precip chances shown for the 31st of May and 1st of June.Range of possible amounts at the airport is very large this far out. The amount of PW exceeds 1 inch for many of the members.

Total precipitation forecast by the 06 UTC GFS run (above) is for period ending on 3 June.

This morning's 500 mb analysis is shown below. Note the numerous missing sites across the country, especially so over the Northwest. Missing sites due to NOAA budget cuts and/or lack of helium supplies.

Early Morning MCS

IR image from 1330 UTC this morning shows a large MCS (mesoscale convective system) over Oklahoma, Arkansas, and Missouri. Radar image below shows the same system at 1335 UTC. Flooding and severe thunderstorms have been reported with this system.

Wind Gusts Monday And Tuesday

Red skies at 6:10 am MST this morning.

Winds with gusts of 35 to 45 mph were common across all of southeast Arizona on Monday and Tuesday. The airport reported 38 mph on Monday and 35 mph yesterday. Pioneer Airfield reported 51 mph, with Gutherie coming at in at 56 mph, both yesterday.

Plumes from 06 UTC this morning (above) indicate a windy weekend ahead. Long-range GFS forecast for precipitation totals (below) keeps most of Arizona dry through the 30th.

Dangerous Wildfire Conditions

View of the Catalinas, with contrail, at 8:30 am MST this morning.

Conditions expected to be windy, hot, and dry today and tomorrow, leading to Red Flag Warnings - map for today's warning area shown above. Current NWS morning forecast is detailed below.

Windy Morning

View of the Catalinas at 7:00 am MST this Saturday morning.

It is quite windy here aong the Rillito this morning - estimated gusts 20 to 30 mph here at the house. Plot of wind gusts at 7:00 am from MesoWest (above).

Current forecast of maximum gusts today (above) from the NWS Forecast Office. GEFS plumes for wind from 06 UTC (below) indicate a windy start to the coming week.

Continued Showers - Updated

Heavy clouds over the Catalinas at 7:30 am MST, with fractus hugging the foothills.

Rain amounts of 0.04" and more covered the northwestern portions of the ALERT network for 24-hours ending at 7:30 am (above). Data for same period from MesoWest (below) show that measurable amounts were more widespread. Here at house there was 0.04" in the gauge at 7:30 am. NOTE - light additional shower or two brought total for event to 0.05".

The morning sounding from TWC/TUS (above) shows very deep moisture with a sliver of CAPE. At 7:30 am there were still some lingering showers over the metro area (below).

The 12 UTC 500 mb pattern (below) shows a large, Omega type block covering the continental US.

Scattered Showers

Clouds on the Catalinas at 7:35 am MST this morning. View at bottom from Summerhaven shows they had a skiff of snow up there.

Light showers yesterday ocuurred mainly over and around the mountains - note one site has gone bonkers. I didn't note any sprinkles here at the house.

The GEFS plumes for the next week indicate some chances for light showers today and tomorrow (above); temperatures warm toward the century mark by the end of week (below); with strong winds returning by the weekend (second below). 

Winds were strong around much of the state yesterday. The airport hit 37 mph; Douglas and Pioneer Airfield reported 47 mph; Winslow hit 49 mph; and the windy site at Gutherie was highest I found at 59 mph.

May Fourth

 

Today is often considered Star Wars Day.

May Day

 

Afternoon showers over the Catalinas on April 5th.

During all of April I measured only 0.01" of rain after a brief, pre-sunrise, sprinkle on the 19th. There was also a Trace on the afternoon of the 5th. This April came in as the eighth driest, since I started my records back in 1999. There had been 7 Aprils with no precipitation. Also of note was the earliest recording of a high temperature of 100 F at the airport on April 11th.

Dust Devil

 

Photo of a spectacular dust devil - taken near Casa Grande on Easter Sunday.

Today Is Earth Day

 

Dry Weather Continues

Perfectly clear skies over the Catalinas at 7:15 am MST this morning.

Even though a strong trough at 500 mb crosses Arizona on the 29th, the models currently keep it moisture-starved, with no precipitation. Plumes above are from the 06 UTC runs of the GEFS. Forecast below is from the GFS 06 UTC run, showing no precipitation over Arizona through 06 UTC on May 7th.

Light Showers

Early am showers over north side of metro at 3:40 am MST this morning.

ALERT observations for 24-hours ending at 7:00 am MST this morning (above) show only a few sites with 0.04" or more. However, observations from MesoWest for same 24-hours (below) indicate considerably more sites with light amounts less than 0.04". Here at house we had 0.01" around 3 to 4 am MST. The GEFS plumes yesterday (see below) were a reasonable forecast for the area.

Strange Forecast

Venus rising over the Rincons before sunrise yesterday morning.

Forecast from 11:00 am MST yesterday (above) seemed a bit strange, calling for blowing dust between 3 and 4 pm - assume that was a typo.

Forecast for maximum wind gusts yesterday (above) went for 33 mph at the airport. Winds were gusty during the afternoon, with the highest gust at airport coming in at 36 mph. However, there were no restrictions to visiblity at the airport.

Current GEFS plumes for QPF for the airport are shown below. All members are forecasting measurable (but very light) amounts. Current NWS forecast calls for only 30 percent POPs at the airport. At bottom is WRF-RR forecast (from 12 UTC today) indicating that precipitation stays north of our area through 5:00 pm tomorrow.