Chance For Showers

Some build-ups on the Rincons at 8:40 am MST this morning.

The 12 UTC 500 mb analysis (above) shows a large trough along the Colorado River that will move across Arizona today. The morning TWC/TUS sounding (below) indicates a sliver of CAPE, that may increase some as cooler, mid-level temperatures move overhead.

Various precipitation forecasts for today are shown here: above are the GEFS plumes from 06 UTC, indicating nearly 100 percent POPs at the airport; below is the 12 UTC WRF-RR forecast through 6:00 pm this evening showing precipitation across most of eastern Pima County; and at bottom is the current NWS POPs map for this afternoon. No rain here for past three weeks.

Dusty Start To April

 

Blowig dust over the Catalinas at 5:00 pm MST yesterday.

The airport had gusts to 49 mph in the afternoon. Strongest gusts I found in the observations: Safford and Guthrie both had 55 mph, and Winslow reported 51 mph. At one point late in day I-10 was closed both north and also east of Tucson due to crashes and low visibility from the blowing dust.

March Summary

 
 

A cloudy sunrise (with contrail) to start April.

During March there was only measurable rain here on four days - the 7th, 12th, 13th, and 15th - totaling 0.59". The showers actually occured mostly during the nights. This was a fairly typical March, coming in at the 13th driest spot. Forecast models indicate a very dry start for April, as our drought continues.