Slightly Unsettled Weekend

View of campus (east Mall) a bit after 7:00 am MST this morning - looks like there's one person walking toward east in this view.

Yesterday there were afternoon and evening thunderstorms in northern Mexico, and one storm affected the very southeast corner of Cochise County. Plot of detected CG flashes below is for 24-hours ending at midnight last night (from Atmo and Vaisala). 

The 500 mb pattern this morning (above) shows a weak anticyclone centered somewhere over western Arizona. Stronger winds are restricted to northern parts of state. This morning's sounding for TWC (below) shows light/variable winds below 400 mb, PW a bit over 0.75", and no CAPE.

Forecasts (all from 06 UTC last night) indicate some increase in PW through the day tomorrow and then a rapid plunge during Sunday night (above PW plumes from GEFS). Forecast TWC sounding below (from WRF-GFS) is valid at noon tomorrow - only slight bit of CAPE forecast above 600 mb.

The GEFS plumes for QPF at airport (above) show showers at airport, mostly during day tomorrow, with very light rain amounts possible in those forecasts. The WRF-GFS forecast of rainfall amounts through midnight Sunday night, with a goose egg for the airport. 

This is a pretty marginal situation, and I'd be surprised, but happy, to find measurable rain in the gauge here by Monday morning.

Slight Chance Showers This Weekend And Bit Cooler

Some high clouds to east this morning - above.  High temperatures yesterday (below) had very large range (more than 60 F) from Wyoming to southern California - high here was 102 F (third straight day over 100 F).

Models forecast a very slight chance for showers over parts of Arizona this weekend. Precipitation amounts forecast at airport (above from 06 UTC GEFS) indicate best chances at airport Saturday night into Sunday, with amounts averaging only about 0.07". Forecasts for PW (below - from same runs) show a peak reaching almost an inch on Sunday.

GEFS forecasts some CAPE over weekend (above from 06 UTC runs), so there may be thunderstorms around, especially Sunday), which would bring some local spots with heavier rain possible. The 06 UTC WRF-GFS forecast for amounts through 6:00 pm MST on Sunday show little of consequence for southeast Arizona. But cooler temperatures and higher RH will be a welcome change, even without rain in the gauge.

Severe Thunderstorms Yesterday

Thunderstorms southeast of Oklahoma City (near Noble) at about 4:05 pm CDT yesterday.

Radar from the same time (above) shows an impressive, broken line of supercell thunderstorms (as indicated by the hook echoes) stretched across northeastern Oklahoma. Graphic below shows watches and warnings in effect at that time (red-tornado warning; orange-severe thunderstorm warnings; yellow - tornado watch; and purple - severe thunderstorm watch). 

Graphic from SPC for yesterday (above) indicates no tornadoes reported, but almost 400 reports of severe winds and hail. The narrow, but very long line (from north Kansas to South Carolina) of severe wind reports is interesting and worthy of a closer look. Contrast the 4th (above) with reports from the 3rd (below), when the severe winds were associated with long-lived derecho/bow echo.

Nothing to report from out here, except continued hot and very dry.

May Day

Another beautiful sunrise here in Tucson on May Day. April closed out very dry with only 0.04" of precipitation. May is, on average, the driest month here at house (my record covers the last 20 years) with only 0.12".

Here in Tucson, we can expect continued warm temperatures and some gusty winds today. Forecast above for wind speeds at 3:00 pm MST this afternoon from the 06 UTC WRF-GFS. Below is the dismal precipitation forecast, from the same model run, through midnight on May 11th.

The outlook for May (from the NWS Climate Prediction Center) offers little hope wrt precipitation, and continues the unusual heat that saw the last two days of April hitting 101 F. So it goes.

End Of April

Mild (68 F at airport at 6:00 am MST) at sunrise, with high clouds overhead, on last day of April. Past month has been dry, with only 0.04" of rain here at house - on April 11th. April through June are usually our three driest months of the year - so about two more months of this before we can look forward to the thunderstorm season. 

Image down at bottom shows freeways nearly deserted near LAX on this foggy, "Stay-At-Home" morning.

Banner from NWS yesterday afternoon - official high at airport yesterday was 101 F - first hundred degree day coming about three weeks to a month earlier than normal (depending upon which time period is considered, as per above).

Coming week will be high and dry (as per below), with afternoon highs upper 90s to low 100s and no chances for rainfall. Second below is forecast of total precipitation through 5:00 pm May 7th (from 00 UTC WRF-GFS last evening).

Clear Skies Continue/ Temps Flirt With 100F

Another morning with clear skies - wondering when we'll have clouds to watch!

Temperatures in the afternoons have been hot and flirting with the 100's - NWS forecasts several days during the coming week to be at or just above 100F. There remains little hope for rainfall (06 UTC GEFS QPF for airport above).

Unfolded sky view from Mt. Lemmon below - No those are not clouds at left. Looks like a bird made a direct hit on the all-sky camera lens.

Today Is The 50th Earth Day

Much progress since 1970, although some backsliding occurring recent years.

More Of Same This Week

Campus view north from Professor Emeritus Wyant's office (Optical Sciences) shows a completely deserted campus, that remains shut down because of the virus pandemic.

Bottom is view of Jackson, Wyoming, golf course with just a bit of snow left on the course.

Little to report locally. Gusty winds (forecast above from 06 UTC WRF-GFS is for winds at 4:00 pm MST tomorrow) combined with very dry conditions have led NWS to issue a Fire Weather Watch for southeast Arizona, with metro Tucson area just west of watch area (see NWS webpage for complete details).

Forecast below for total precipitation is from 00 UTC WRF-GFS and is valid through 5:00 pm on the 27th. Temperatures will be summer-like, approaching 100 F, by the end of the week.

More About The Stick Of Truth

More about the still askew stick at:

https://www.tetonvalleynews.net/news/the-truth-shall-set-you-free/article_c30f9282-0864-519c-9e01-b386b25fdaaa.html

Below from Boulder NWS.

Windy At Times With Temperatures Inching Upward

Another mostly sunny sunrise in what's continuing to be a very dry April here. View above from Atmo at a bit after 6:30 am MST. At bottom is the leaning "Stick of Truth" at Grand Targhee Resort, in Wyoming on west side of Tetons - looks like the duct tape repair is not hacking it.

Little to report, except more of the same with occasional windy periods and temperatures creeping up toward the 90s. Wind forecast above (from 06 UTC run of WRF-NAM) valid at 1:00 PM this afternoon. The 06 UTC GEFS plumes for temperature below provide a hint of what's ahead for us in coming weeks.

Dry For Rest Of April

Clouds over the Catalinas this morning. Down at bottom: view of a snowy morning in Denver, and also Old Faithful being faithful.

GEFS models forecasting no precipitation for Tucson through end of month. Below is GFS 06 UTC forecast for total precipitation through midnight last day of April.