Looks like a very interesting day setting up locally.
Very nice push of low-level moisture into most of southern Arizona after midnight, makes today quite different than yesterday thermodynamically.
The TWC morning sounding exhibits a low-level structure that's often associated with such nighttime moisture pushes, and I think that it is a reasonably good representation of morning conditions - one of the few times this week. The sounding, with the middle-level cooling and added moisture, indicates moderate CAPE lower elevations and even more unstable conditions higher elevations. The strong storms to our south and southeast last night crashed as they moved toward lower elevations. Today should be better, with storms coming into the lower elevations.
The morning NAM indicates a good setting by evening with upper-level difluence, and 15 to 20 kt steering winds at 500 mb. All of this due to an upper-level inverted trof brushing over the top of the malingering weak wave at lower levels. The dilemma of course is that the NAM has been forecasting stronger middle level winds than have been observed the past few days - so we have to wonder whether conditions will be as good this evening as NAM suggests.
The VAD winds this morning show L/V winds aloft - except for KYUX which shows that the surge extends up to at least 6000 ft agl. So, the evolution of the wind field today will likely determine how aggressively storms move into lower elevations. A good day to watch the Doppler winds and the Ft. Huachuca profiler winds closely.
My guess is that today will be quite active SE third of state with possibility of strong to severe hybrid downbursts and locally heavy rains. Storms here at house? Probably at least a 50% chance or better.
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