DEVELOPING WEATHER EVENT

Finally looks like we may have some clouds and weather here in SE AZ during the weekend.

The ECMWF and the GFS ensemble members are all pretty much in agreement now, indicating a strong wave digging down the west coast, with the eventual cutoff affecting us from about 96 to 144 hours - from 00 UTC model runs last evening.

There are about 5 waves strung out across the northern Pacific and it's not clear which one kicks up the ridge into AK, forcing the wave down the coast. Obviously all the models have keyed on one of these to be the agent of change.

The models appear to predict about a quarter to half an inch of precip at lower elevations by late Monday afternoon. Uncertainties this far out - how long will the wave affect SE AZ - some model runs keep it more isolated from the main flow to the north; how much moisture will the system pickup (the ECMWF hints at better moisture flowing northward toward the end of the event, while - surprise - the GFS members stay drier). Only 10 of 12 GFS ensemble members predict measurable rainfall at lower elevations in SE AZ during the event.

Current fcst POPs for both TUS metro and also top of Catalinas max out at 30% for Sunday night. PHX has issued a hazardous weather outlook for this event already (see the nice early am FD from PHX). Will be interesting to watch how this event evolves.

Different topic - My total precip for Dec/Jan/Feb here at house was 5.84 inches -not bad for a la nina winter! Actually not bad for any of past ten winters - beaten only (I think) by the 97-98 el nino winter.