REST OF MONTH LOOKS INTERESTING FOR SOUTHWEST

Both GFS and NAM model forecasts continue to be quite interesting for the Southwest.

Appears that there may be high-based, dry lightning storms over the mountains of far southeast AZ this weekend. Definitely not good, given the extreme dry conditions of last two and a half months. Only 0.09" of rain here at house since March 17th!

In the longer term, the GFS ensemble members keep a strong, middle-level anticyclone north Mexico/southern Plains, and then tend to shift it northward during last 10 days of month. Throw a tropical disturbance into this pattern and who knows what we might see down here.

I'm off to Wisconsin where it will be green and wet and probably muddy.