Today's Weather - Southeast Arizona

Have been off-line for last two days due to dsl problems. So, it was the nice cool mornings that told me I shouldn't have doubted the NWS models and forecasts in keeping a dryout over Arizona for most of this week.

This morning there are, however, some indications of changes underway that will bring storms back into this part of the state. This morning there were quite a few ACC drifting around beneath the cirrus at sunrise. Since there has been no NWS sounding taken at TWC the last two sounding times, I have to guess about what a sounding here would look like this morning. There does appear to be some increase in east-northeasterly winds around 500 mb, along with some cooler temps advecting over southeastern Arizona today. Deep, subtropical moisture remains south of Hermosilla, but hot surface temps, along with the cooler middle level temps indicate that high-based storms should return to some of the sky island mountains of southeast Arizona late today, producing some lightning and gusty outflows.

The widespread convective activity over the southern half of GoC, coupled with falling pressures in the lower Colorado Basin, as well as the 500 mb wave moving slowly westward across the lower GoC all are good indicators that a northward push of the subtropical air is imminent. My guess is that we should see a push of low-level moisture into southwest and south central Arizona within 24 to 48 hours, followed by increasing storm activity for the next few days.