Off to a slow start today. There were light showers at sunrise this morning here at the house, but only a trace. The visible satellite image (above from 8:30 am MST) shows that the Pacific system is still off the California coast. Considerable cloudiness and shower activity has developed over Nevada and Arizona ahead of the system. The model forecasts (NWS NAM) indicate that the system may move across Arizona a bit slower than earlier forecasts had indicated. Below is 500 mb forecast valid at noon today (11 October 2012).
The NAM 500 mb forecast for midnight tonight is shown above, indicating the system still well to the west. Below is the CIRA blended PW analysis valid at 8 am MST this morning. It indicates a nice plume of PW values of 1.0 to 1.5 inches extending from the GoC into southwestern Arizona. The morning run of the NAM is more aggressive wrt precipitation over southeastern Arizona with this system than is the early WRF-GFS, which keeps precipitation mostly to the north. Now, we'll just watch to see how this event plays out.
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