The big weather topic this week has been the large difference between the ECMWF and GFS forecast models. The main player is Hurricane Sandy - see IR image above from 4:45 am MST this morning. Sandy has hit eastern Cuba during the night as a Cat. 2 hurricane and is just moving back over water.
The GFS model forecasts Sandy to head into the open Atlantic while the ECMWF forecasts Sandy to evolve into a major storm event for the northeastern U.S. The two models' forecasts of surface pressures valid at 5 pm MST on Monday afternoon are shown - above is NWS GFS and below is ECMWF. The spread remains very large in some of the various ensemble forecasts. So, even at only 120-hours it is not clear which scenario will be closest to reality. A storm such as the ECMWF forecasts would, of course, have serious impacts for the most populated parts of the country. The key to how the situation evolves lies in how Sandy interacts with a 500 mb short wave that is just coming ashore over Oregon this morning. So, considerable uncertainty for millions as the weekend approaches.
No comments:
Post a Comment