Ugly 500 mb High Over Four Corners Today

Just time for a quick post this morning (Friday, June 28th). First - the weak surge of low-level moisture expected from Cosme did indeed show up at Yuma around 7 am yesterday morning. It has not mixed out as quickly as I expected and it may have been deeper than I anticipated. I see that dewpoints in low-levels increased some in Tucson also.

The 500 mb analysis from NCAR RAL is shown above for 12 UTC this morning with the large, intense anticyclone centered over the Four Corners. A bit of middle level moisture is circulating around the anticyclone. The 12 UTC Tucson skew-T (below) indicates fairly strong easterly winds across southeastern Arizona above 600 mb. The sounding also indicates the increased moisture at low levels. A slight bit of CAPE is indicated above about 450 mb - ugh! So any mountain convection will be VERY high-based and pose the threat of dry lightning as the dessicating heat intensifies.